The 200-week moving average has given way—but my short is still in profit. First, an update on the numbers.
11:00: $BTC , about $67,536, down 3.8% in 24 hours; $ETH , about $1,908, down 4.1% (live data from CoinGecko). At 09:00 this morning, I said the current price was just $220 away from the 200-week moving average (around $68,000). Two hours later, that level broke: the price is now $67,536, already below yesterday’s low of $67,568. A cluster of $112.5 million in long liquidations sits below $67,500 (the one I mentioned yesterday), just $36 below us. A break could trigger a cascade.
Why this level matters: it’s the first time in 11 weeks that price has tested it (Cointelegraph); the last test was on August 19. Bitfinex’s view is that the long-term trend remains intact only if the weekly candle closes above $68,000 on Sunday. So today’s break isn’t the final verdict—the Sunday close is. The weekly RSI is back at 41.5. Material Indicators’ Keith Alan warned that a break below 41.5 could point to $57,700. I’m noting that level, not treating it as a target.
The flow data is also aligning with the bears: Glassnode data shows the aggregate perpetual funding rate has turned negative for the first time in a month (CoinDesk). Shorts are starting to pay, suggesting more traders are piling into short positions. U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows of about $644 million this week through Thursday (SoSoValue), marking a sixth consecutive trading day of outflows. U.S. stocks were also weak on Friday, with the Nasdaq down 0.91%.
Short position update #2: I opened this short today at 07:04 in the $68,000–$69,000 range, with a midpoint entry of $68,500. The current price is $67,536, down 1.40% from entry. At 100x leverage, that’s an unrealized gain of about 140% on margin. At 09:00 this morning, it was still +41%—to be honest, this trade is making more now. The $70,500 stop-loss and the invalidation level of a 4-hour close above $70,214 have both remained untouched, so I’m holding. Target one at $65,000 (I’ll take half off there) and target two at $62,300–$62,800 are unchanged. As planned, I won’t add to the short below $68,000. With 100x leverage, I’m only putting a very small portion of my total funds at risk.
Next, I’m watching two closes: the 12:00 4-hour candle (another confirmation if it closes below $68,000), and the weekly close at 08:00 on Sunday (only a close back above $68,000 would mean this was a false breakdown). $ETH $1,908; the $1,900 level is only $8 away. If it doesn’t hold, the bears could accelerate again.
Akedo is still ripping in the trending charts, up 391% in a day (it was only +329.8% at 09:00 this morning); PEARL is up 12.7% and at a new high, while SOL is down 5.3%. I treat small coins as sentiment indicators only—I’m not touching them. Do you think the weekly candle can close back above $68,000 on Sunday? Let’s talk in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 11:00 Beijing time on November 14; chart shows the past 24 hours.)