kalshi

📰 DOJ, CFTC Sue Arkansas to Block Kalshi Crackdown as Prediction Market Battle Escalates
The U.S. Department of Justice and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have filed a federal lawsuit against Arkansas, seeking to prevent the state from shutting down Kalshi’s prediction markets and imposing potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties. The complaint, filed Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Arkansas, names […]
Source : Bitcoin News
Time : 2026-11-13 20:20:44
Credit : andrew hayward
#kalshi #arkansas_ar #prediction_markets #regulation_&_legal #cftc

Share your opinion in the comment section below

📰 DOJ, CFTC Sue Arkansas to Block Kalshi Crackdown as Prediction Market Battle Escalates
The U.S. Department of Justice and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have filed a federal lawsuit against Arkansas, seeking to prevent the state from shutting down Kalshi’s prediction markets and imposing potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties. The complaint, filed Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Arkansas, names […]
Source : Bitcoin News
Time : 2026-11-13 20:20:44
Credit : andrew hayward
#kalshi #arkansas_ar #prediction_markets #regulation_&_legal #cftc

Share your opinion in the comment section below

#Kalshi
DOJ and CFTC vs. Arkansas: Federal Agencies Defend Prediction Markets (Kalshi) Against State-Level Bans! ⚖️🇺🇸

The U.S. Department of Justice (#DOJ ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (#CFTC ) have officially filed a lawsuit against the state of Arkansas, seeking to block local restrictions on prediction market platforms like Kalshi.

Key points of the dispute:
➡️ Federal Preemption: The agencies assert that states lack the authority to apply local gambling laws to exchanges and event-based derivative contracts regulated by the CFTC.
➡️ Arkansas’s Position: State Attorney General Tim Griffin previously sued Kalshi, accusing the platform of illegal gambling (specifically regarding bets on sports and elections) and violating consumer protection laws (by allowing individuals under 18 to trade).
➡️ Scope of the Conflict: This marks the 11th U.S. state to become embroiled in a legal dispute with the CFTC over the regulation of prediction markets. The platforms themselves (Kalshi and Crypto.com’s OG.com) have also filed separate lawsuits challenging Arkansas’s actions.

⚠️ The federal government is seeking injunctions to protect legal exchanges from enforcement actions by state authorities. The battle for the future of prediction markets is heating up! 📈

LOUISIANA JUST BLOCKED PREDICTION MARKETS — BUT WASHINGTON DISAGREES

A Louisiana judge has issued a temporary order targeting event contracts offered by Kalshi, Polymarket US, Robinhood, Coinbase and other platforms
Without a state gaming license, the companies must restrict access to users located in Louisiana
But there's an unusual conflict

$PREDICT

⚖️ On November 5, the CFTC said federally regulated derivatives exchanges generally cannot restrict eligible US traders simply because of which state they're in
Now Louisiana is ordering the geographic restrictions that federal regulators say conflict with impartial market access rules
For traders, this isn't just a legal debate
Access to new contracts can change even when an existing position hasn't been settled
The court order is temporary, and the wider question of federal versus state authority remains unresolved

$BTC

🔎 The next test comes through court challenges and Louisiana's November 30 injunction hearing
Prediction markets are growing fast
But who gets to regulate them may determine who gets to trade

#PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket

⚖️ WASHINGTON JUST WENT TO WAR FOR PREDICTION MARKETS

The DOJ and CFTC sued Arkansas on Thursday, asking a federal judge to block the state's crackdown on Kalshi. Their argument: event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, and the CFTC alone has jurisdiction over them.

Arkansas is now the 11th state the CFTC has sued in this turf war. The state sued Kalshi on Nov 4, calling its sports contracts illegal gambling and seeking up to $10,000 per violation — penalties that could reach hundreds of millions of dollars.

🔑 WHY IT MATTERS
The suit also seeks to shield other CFTC-regulated exchanges and their partners. Coinbase, Robinhood and Gemini all run event contracts. It follows the CFTC's Nov 5 guidance giving exchanges 30 days to drop domestic geo-blocks.

Prediction markets now sit at the center of US crypto regulation, and $BTC traders know every ruling here sets precedent for the wider market.

⚠️ THE OTHER SIDE
The courts are split. Louisiana won a 10-day restraining order against the same platforms this week, and a California judge restricted Kalshi sports contracts on tribal lands on Nov 4. No judge has ruled on the federal case yet.

For crypto, the signal is clear: Washington now openly defends prediction markets as federal financial markets, not gambling. If the CFTC wins, event contracts open up across every major US platform. If the states win, the sector fragments state by state.

🐂 or 🐻 — are prediction markets the next big US crypto battleground?

📌 Sharing personal opinions only, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion.

#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #CFTC #Crypto #Binance

Louisiana sues Kalshi, Robinhood and other prediction markets

Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill said she filed a lawsuit against #Kalshi , #Robinhood , #Polymarket , #Forecastex , #Cryptocom, #Coinbase, #Novig , Underdog, #Gemini and #ProphetX, accusing the platforms of violating state law.

On November 12, the court temporarily barred the defendants from offering event contracts to Louisiana residents without a state gambling license. The companies maintain that their platforms fall under federal CFTC regulation. A hearing on whether to extend the restriction is scheduled for November 30.

👉 theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-11-12-louisiana-sues-kalshi-robinhood-other-prediction-markets-escalating-regulatory-fight-439052

🚨 FEDERAL REGULATORS INTERVENE TO PROTECT $KALSHI FROM STATE-LEVEL CRACKDOWNS 🏛️

Institutional architecture is clashing with regional oversight as federal agencies step in to shield prediction markets from jurisdictional fragmentation. ⚖️ The Justice Department and CFTC are aggressively defending federal preemption, setting a high-stakes precedent for how derivative contracts are regulated nationwide. 🔍

This regulatory battleground will dictate whether event-driven liquidity pools operate under a unified framework or fracture across state lines. 💡 Are you positioning for a centralized regulatory greenlight or anticipating further jurisdictional friction? 🤔

⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️

🏷️ #KALSHI #PredictionMarkets #CFTC #Regulation

📊 ⚖️

⚖️ DOJ and CFTC sue Arkansas to shield Kalshi from state crackdown

The U.S. Justice Department and the CFTC have sued Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin in federal court to block the state's enforcement action against prediction market Kalshi. Griffin sued Kalshi on November 4, calling it an illegal gambling platform under Arkansas law.

The federal agencies argue the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction, that the contracts Arkansas targets are swaps, and that state law is preempted. They are asking for preliminary and permanent injunctions, which would also cover future state actions against CFTC-regulated prediction markets.

⭐ Washington is now directly taking on the states in the prediction market fight, and the outcome could decide whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face one federal rulebook or a patchwork of state bans.

#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #CFTC #Regulation

🔄 Kalshi ends Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory role after his firm backs Polymarket

Prediction market Kalshi has ended its advisory relationship with Donald Trump Jr., Reuters reported. The move follows his venture firm 1789 Capital leading rival Polymarket's $1 billion funding round, which would value Polymarket at $21 billion, with 1789 Capital set to contribute about $300 million. A Kalshi spokesperson said the decision was mutual and that political considerations played no role. Trump Jr. had joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser in January 2025.

⭐ The split sharpens the rivalry between the two biggest prediction markets at a time when the sector faces a wave of state lawsuits and rising political scrutiny.

#Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets

🚨 WARREN caught a Trump aide betting on Trump's speeches. An aide read the speech early, then bet on Kalshi he would say those words. CFTC fined him $172,000. Warren takes the gavel in January. Still betting on Kalshi, or is the crackdown coming? $BTC #Kalshi

The U.S. Congress is turning its attention to prediction markets: On November 13, the House Oversight Committee released a memo after reviewing nearly 1,700 pages of documents and holding five bipartisan briefings. Its conclusion was simple: officials, military personnel, and people with security clearances who have inside information are using it to make money on Polymarket and Kalshi. The committee recommended that Congress consider legislation to either ban officials from betting altogether or prohibit only government-related contracts. The Senate has already moved first, imposing a blanket ban. The most outrageous case: Army Sergeant Major Van Dyke was accused of using classified information about the operation to capture Maduro to make $409,000 on Polymarket. Prediction markets were supposed to harness “the wisdom of the crowd”—now they’ve become an ATM for insider trading. If this crackdown goes ahead, are the good times about to end for Kalshi and Polymarket?#预测市场 #Kalshi

The same contract: the federal government calls it a financial product, while states call it gambling. The U.S. has now reached the 11th state in its fight over prediction markets.

On November 13, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a press release: it had officially sued Arkansas. This is the 11th state the CFTC has sued.

First, the facts (source: CFTC press release, November 13):
1. What sparked this: Arkansas brought a civil enforcement action against Kalshi in state court. Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM).
2. What Arkansas wants to do: halt event contract trading and impose civil penalties of “up to hundreds of millions of dollars” on a CFTC-registered exchange.
3. The CFTC’s position: these exchanges operate lawfully under the Commodity Exchange Act, state interference is “preempted” by federal law, and the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts.
4. Scale: Arkansas is the 11th state the CFTC has sued; the CFTC has also filed amicus briefs in four federal courts of appeals and one state supreme court.
5. Scope: The contracts mentioned by the CFTC chair cover sports, politics, and other major world events.

What exactly does this change?
It’s not about “who won.” The same product is subject to two sets of rules in the U.S.: the federal government regulates it as a derivative, while states regulate it as gambling. Until the lawsuits are decided, no conclusion is final.

Three practical ways to assess the situation:
1. Check the platform’s status first: You can look up the list of “Designated Contract Markets (DCMs)” on the CFTC website. This lawsuit protects CFTC-registered exchanges; “prediction markets” not on the list are outside the scope of its claim.
2. See what action the state is taking: Is it enforcement such as a “halt and fine,” or is it just issuing a warning? The former is what directly affects whether local users can continue trading.
3. Watch the rulings, not the rhetoric: With 11 lawsuits and five amicus briefs, what actually matters is the court’s decision. Press releases and statements are just positions.

My take: The biggest risk for prediction markets right now isn’t price—it’s that “whether this is legal where you live” hasn’t been settled. Before placing a bet, find out.

Follow me for U.S. regulatory news. I cover no more than two stories a day, and only the ones that matter to you.

#预测市场 #CFTC #美国监管 #Kalshi

KALSHI IS WORTH $65 BILLION AND HASN’T EVEN GONE PUBLIC 🤯📈

I can’t stop thinking that prediction markets are having their moment: Kalshi, the platform where people bet on the outcomes of real-world events like elections or sports, is negotiating a new funding round that would value it at $65 billion, according to Bloomberg. Just two weeks ago, it closed a $1 billion round at a $40 billion valuation, which was supposed to be the last one before going public. And its monthly volume has almost tripled: from $40 billion in August to nearly $100 billion in October.

I think this says a lot: while the crypto market is falling, people keep betting on what’s going to happen—and that’s already worth billions.

Would you bet on a prediction market, or do you prefer to stick with the usual cryptocurrencies?

#Kalshi

#CFTCSuesArkansasOverKalshi
⚖️ THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE AND CFTC SUE THE STATE OF ARKANSAS TO BACK KALSHI
Hey everyone, the U.S. Department of Justice and CFTC sued the state of Arkansas on 12/11, asking a federal court to block Attorney General Tim Griffin’s lawsuit against the Kalshi exchange. The federal government maintains that prediction contracts are swaps, which only the CFTC has the authority to regulate. Arkansas sued Kalshi on 4/11, seeking penalties of up to 10,000 dollars per violation, potentially totaling hundreds of millions of dollars. This is now the 11th state sued by the CFTC; Bitcoin perpetuals are hovering around 68,777 dollars.
Today’s biggest perpetual volatility: $ZRO 1,60 dollars, $ICP 2,58 dollars, $ZEC 944 dollars
#Kalshi #CFTC #PredictionMarkets

Louisiana has taken action: a judge granted an injunction on the day the lawsuit was filed, keeping 10 prediction market platforms out of the state.

Here’s what happened: On November 12, Attorney General Liz Murrill sued 10 platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging that contracts related to sports, elections, and awards constitute illegal online gambling.

At 3:48 p.m. that same day, Judge Jeffrey Johnson signed a temporary restraining order requiring the platforms to geofence users in the state. The order is valid for only 10 days; a hearing on November 30 will determine whether it should become a preliminary injunction.

At the time of publication, BTC was trading at $69,024, down 5.92% over 24 hours (TradingView live price at 17:36).

My take: This time, speed was the key. HB 883’s provision that a violation is deemed to cause irreparable harm meant the state got an injunction on the day it filed suit without having to prove the harm.

But this is only a temporary order issued without hearing from the other side, not a final ruling. Kalshi had already filed a countersuit in federal court on October 23, arguing that prediction contracts fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.

What I’m watching: the November 30 hearing and Kalshi’s emergency motion in federal court—whichever gets a decision first. If the federal court rules that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction, the state injunction could be rendered moot.

Do you think prediction markets will ultimately be regulated by the states or by the CFTC?

$BTC $ETH $SOL
#预测市场 #Kalshi

Kalshi Ends Trump Jr.'s Advisory Deal Over Polymarket

- Kalshi has ended its advisory agreement with Donald Trump Jr.
- Reason: a conflict of interest due to his ties to Polymarket.
- The prediction market platform is being designated by state authorities as a fraudulent betting site.
- The original article was published on Coingape.
#Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionMarket #CryptoNews

$btc $eth

#vlikevn Titanbot

Source: CoinGape

【Caught playing both sides and “asked to leave”! Donald Trump Jr. loses Kalshi adviser role because his own fund backed rival Polymarket】
Prediction market Kalshi confirmed on November 12 that it had agreed with Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, to end his advisory contract. The move came after 1789 Capital, where he is a partner, led a $1 billion funding round for rival Polymarket, valuing it at $21 billion. He remains an adviser to Polymarket. Democrats have just won control of both chambers of Congress, and Senator Warren and others have written to the White House asking it to clarify his role and interests in prediction markets by November 23.
#Kalshi #Polymarket #predictionmarket

Kalshi's valuation went from $22 billion to $40 billion, and now it's reportedly discussing $65 billion—nearly tripling in six months. I don't think this means “prediction markets are crushing it”; it looks more like annualizing peak-season numbers and pushing them as high as possible to raise another round before public markets scrutinize the company in an IPO.

First, the numbers Bloomberg reported on November 12: at the end of October, Kalshi had just closed a $1 billion round at a $40 billion valuation, led by Sequoia and Wellington. That round was originally seen as its last before going public. A few weeks later, it was discussing a $65 billion valuation. Its annualized revenue run rate had just topped $5 billion, gross margin was about 90%, and monthly notional trading volume rose from around $40 billion in August to nearly $100 billion in October.

$65 billion divided by $5 billion is 13 times run rate. Bloomberg previously reported that Polymarket's last round valued it at about $21 billion, with annualized revenue of around $1.8 billion—that's 11 to 12 times. So Kalshi's multiple itself isn't outrageously high. The problem is the denominator.

A run rate takes revenue from a recent period and multiplies it out over a full year. What kind of month was October? The NFL, the MLB playoffs, and then the betting surge ahead of the November 3 midterm elections—all at once. Annualizing a month like that is a bit like valuing a sportsbook based on its revenue during the World Cup. Here's my rough calculation: if the $5 billion figure is based on October multiplied by 12, that's about $420 million in monthly revenue against $100 billion in notional volume, a take rate just over 0.4%. That's my own estimate; Bloomberg didn't specify its methodology. After the election and the playoffs are over, whether notional volume can hold at $100 billion is what this $65 billion round is really betting on.

The second overlooked variable is sports. The bulk of Kalshi's volume comes from sports, and Louisiana just sued it along with more than twenty other platforms in state court. My view is that the real issue is the state's 21.5% online sports tax and licensing—not morality. The federal CFTC shield hasn't yet produced a consistent ruling across the circuit courts. If a few major states manage to rein in sports volume, that 13x won't stay 13x.

One other detail says a lot: they said it was the last round, then opened another one a few weeks later. If private investors are willing to pay a higher price—and you don't have to disclose quarterly results—who wouldn't want to raise one more round? The real test is who shows up to buy on IPO day.

Next, people will probably use this $65 billion valuation as a benchmark for small on-chain prediction market projects. Most of those platforms can't even agree on how to measure revenue, so don't get swept up in the hype.
#预测市场 #Kalshi

🚨 REGULATORY PRESSURE SPIKES AS $KALSHI FACES SUDDEN CFTC ENFORCEMENT THREATS ⚠️

The regulatory net is tightening across the prediction market landscape as federal watchdogs flex their muscles. 📊 This sudden escalation over compliance procedures proves that even established sector leaders are walking through a minefield of shifting legal boundaries.

Smart capital watches how compliance friction ripples into broader liquidity and market participation. ⚡ When regulators demand absolute submission discipline, expect platforms to face heavy headwinds while structural compliance costs surge.

💬 Are event-contract platforms facing a permanent valuation ceiling under this heavy-handed oversight? 👇

⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️

🏷️ #KALSHI #CFTC #PredictionMarkets #CryptoRegulation

🔥 💎

🚨 CFTC WARNS KALSHI: CHARGES COULD COME SOON

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has warned prediction-market giant Kalshi that enforcement charges could be imminent, POLITICO reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the probe. Reuters confirmed the report.

The CFTC is investigating whether Kalshi failed to properly notify the agency about dozens of new contracts. Kalshi pushed back, calling it a procedural error involving a handful of contracts, many of which never went live.

🔹 WHY IT MATTERS
This is a sharp turn in the prediction-market war. The same CFTC has spent weeks suing states to DEFEND Kalshi's federal status, and just last week it approved single-stock perpetual futures for Kalshi and others. Now the regulator is signaling it will also police its own licensees.

Prediction markets are now deeply tied to crypto: Kalshi lists crypto event contracts, and its markets feed straight into the trading narrative. A federal crackdown, even a procedural one, puts the whole sector on notice.

⚠️ THE RISK
Nothing has been filed yet. This is a warning, not a charge, and Kalshi disputes the scope. If the CFTC follows through, expect volatility in prediction-market-linked names and fresh uncertainty over which contracts survive federal scrutiny.

📌 Sharing personal opinions only, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion.

#Kalshi #CFTC #Crypto #Binance